MARKET PULSE · Nº 13
July's books are closing, and the tape tells a split story: Brazil's beef machine finally slowed under the weight of China's exhausted quota — while chicken and pork sprinted hard enough to keep the whole protein complex in the green.
Key Takeaways
- ▸ July beef exports tracked toward ~248,000 t, down 10.4% — first full month after China's quota ran dry.
- ▸ Average beef price hit US$6,387.70/t, up 15% — so daily revenue still rose 3.3%.
- ▸ Chicken shipped 22,966 t/day in July (+40.7%); pork ran at 6,331 t/day (+29%), per Secex.
- ▸ Cepea's fed-cattle arroba held near R$342; the dollar opened August at R$5.06.
- ▸ SIAVS 2026 opens August 4 in São Paulo: 45,000 m² and buyers from 60+ countries.
Welcome to August. The first Market Pulse of the month lands with July's near-complete numbers on the desk, a central-bank decision on the calendar, and half the industry packing bags for São Paulo. Here is the scoreboard.
▮ Beef: the quota toll comes due
This was the month the China math stopped being theoretical. With the 1.106-million-tonne duty-free safeguard quota used up and a 55% tariff waiting on the other side, Brazilian beef shipments ran roughly 10% lighter per day than a year ago — 10,700 t/day against 12,030 t/day in July 2025, per Secex weekly data compiled by Datamar. Projections pointed to about 248,000 tonnes for the full month, versus 276,800 t in July 2025.
And yet the revenue line barely blinked. A global cattle shortage keeps pushing the average export price up — 15% above last July — which means Brazil earned slightly more per day shipping visibly less.
Abiec expects full-year 2026 beef exports to come in around 10% below 2025, mainly on softer Chinese demand — a manageable retreat from a record base, with China still worth 48.5% of first-half export revenue.
▮ Chicken and pork pick up the slack
While beef paid its toll, the white-meat lanes were wide open. Chicken moved 413,400 tonnes in July's 18 business days — 22,966 t/day, up 40.7% against a July 2025 base still dented by the post-avian-flu embargoes — earning US$765.3 million at US$1,851.20/t, per Secex figures reported by Safras & Mercado. Pork ran at 6,331 t/day through mid-month, volumes up 29% even with prices 5.6% cheaper, per AF News.
| Protein | Daily volume (July) | vs Jul 2025 | Avg price (US$/t) | Price y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beef | 10,700 t | −10.3% | 6,387.70 | +15.0% |
| Chicken | 22,966 t | +40.7% | 1,851.20 | +3.0% |
| Pork | 6,331 t | +29.0% | 2,485.70 | −5.6% |
SECEX DAILY AVERAGES · BEEF THROUGH WEEK 3 · PORK THROUGH 8 BUSINESS DAYS · CHICKEN 18 BUSINESS DAYS
The redirection playbook the industry sketched in January is now visibly running: Vietnam newly authorized, Japan and South Korea in negotiation, Indonesia clearing Brazilian plants for export.
"Volumes not sold to China could be redirected to other markets or shipped to countries Brazilian companies are still trying to access." — Roberto Perosa, president of Abiec, to the South China Morning Post, January 2026
▮ The home front: firm arroba, soft demand, R$5.06 dollar
Inside Brazil, the fed-cattle arroba stayed stubborn — Cepea's benchmark ran near R$342 in the second half of July — but Cepea's July 30 read was blunt: pressured household budgets are pushing consumers from beef toward chicken, pork and eggs, and that substitution is capping any new rally.
The currency, meanwhile, gave exporters something to watch: the dollar opened Monday at R$5.06, easing 0.22% on softer oil, with the Copom rate decision due this week and 2026 inflation expectations revised down again in the Focus survey. A firmer real is good news for imported inputs — and a quiet squeeze on FOB margins.
▮ The week ahead: all roads lead to Anhembi
THIS WEEK ON THE DESK
Tue–Thu: SIAVS 2026, ABPA's animal-protein fair, opens its biggest edition ever — 45,000 m² (+65%), 31,000+ expected visitors, buyers from 60+ countries via the ABPA–ApexBrasil program. Midweek: Copom announces its rate decision. Coming days: ABPA's full-July poultry and pork numbers are due — watch whether chicken's 40% pace holds.
THE 4DW ANGLE
A month where beef pays a tariff toll while chicken and pork sprint is exactly why 4D World trades multi-protein — food, CAT-3 pet food raw materials, pharma and rendering — from our own plant, SIF 4075 / Nutre Meat. When one lane narrows, the portfolio keeps moving. And this week the desk is in São Paulo: our team will be walking SIAVS from Tuesday to Thursday — if you're at Anhembi, come say hello.
▮ Frequently asked questions
Why did Brazilian beef exports fall in July 2026?
Because China's 1.106-million-tonne duty-free import quota was exhausted by mid-2026, leaving a 55% tariff on extra volume. July shipments tracked toward ~248,000 t, down 10.4% from July 2025 — yet a 15% higher average price, US$6,387.70/t, kept daily revenue growing 3.3%, per Secex data.
How much chicken did Brazil export in July 2026?
Brazil shipped about 413,400 tonnes of chicken in July 2026's 18 business days — a daily average of 22,966 t, up 40.7% year on year — earning US$765.3 million at US$1,851.20/t, according to Secex. The comparison base, July 2025, was still weakened by post-avian-influenza trade embargoes.
What is SIAVS 2026 and when does it happen?
SIAVS 2026 is ABPA's International Poultry and Pork Show, Brazil's flagship animal-protein fair, running August 4–6, 2026 at Distrito Anhembi, São Paulo. This edition is the largest ever: 45,000 m² of exhibition space (up 65%), 31,000+ expected visitors, and international buyers from more than 60 countries.
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SOURCES