Key Takeaways
- ▸Lula met Trump in Washington on 7 May 2026 to avert new tariffs
- ▸The US Section 301 investigation, opened July 2025, remains open
- ▸An August 2025 50% tariff hit a broad swathe of Brazilian goods
- ▸Beef and coffee were exempted when duties were unwound in late 2025
TRADE & REGULATION
On May 7, 2026, the presidents of Brazil and the United States sat down in Washington with one shared goal on the table: keep a fragile trade truce from breaking into a new round of tariffs.
For an industry that ships protein between the two economies, the meeting mattered less for its optics than for what it did not do — it did not reopen the duties that had already been walked back. But it also did not close the investigation still hanging overhead. The picture is one of a truce, not a settlement.
So where does that leave a beef exporter? In a better place than mid-2025, when a 50% wall briefly appeared, but not a settled one. The relief on beef and coffee is real; the open investigation is the overhang. Trade policy here is a variable, not a constant — and contracts have to be written with that in mind.
The desk's read
We keep this deliberately neutral: politics is not our forecast to make. What we do plan around is optionality — the ability to redirect volume when a single lane narrows. Policy risk is easiest to absorb when no one destination is indispensable.
The 4DW Angle
Episodes like this are the clearest argument for a diversified book. When one bilateral relationship wobbles, exposure spread across the EU, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas turns a potential shock into a manageable reroute.
▮ Frequently asked questions
Why did Lula meet Trump in May 2026?
Lula met Trump in Washington on 7 May 2026 to keep a fragile trade truce from breaking into a new round of tariffs. The meeting did not reopen the duties already walked back, but it also did not close the Section 301 investigation still hanging over Brazilian trade — a truce, not a settlement.
Are Brazilian beef exports to the US still tariffed?
Beef and coffee were exempted when the US unwound its steep tariffs in late 2025, easing the immediate pressure on protein trade. But the Section 301 investigation opened in July 2025 remains open, so the relief is a truce rather than a settlement — trade policy here is a variable, not a constant.
What is the US Section 301 investigation into Brazil?
Section 301 is the formal US mechanism behind tariff action. Opened in July 2025 into Brazilian trade practices, it preceded an August 2025 tariff of 50% on a broad swathe of goods. Duties were later unwound for beef and coffee, but the investigation itself remains open as an overhang.
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