Key Takeaways
- ▸China's hog sector loses about US$3.8 billion a month, roughly US$45 billion a year.
- ▸Producers lose around US$65 per head across roughly 700 million pigs slaughtered yearly.
- ▸China raises about half the world's pigs; hog prices sit near 10-year lows.
- ▸Analysts expect the herd liquidation to grind on through 2027 before prices find a floor.
- ▸Beijing's 2025 order to cut breeding sows failed; Q1 pork output actually rose.
MARKET PULSE · Nº 5
China raises roughly half the pigs on Earth — and right now, almost every one of them is losing money. The sector is hemorrhaging an estimated US$3.8 billion a month, and the herd liquidation is only starting.
The math is brutal and it is consistent: about $65 lost on every head, across roughly 700 million pigs slaughtered a year, works out to the same ~$45 billion annual bleed the monthly figure implies. Hog prices have sunk toward their lowest in a decade, dragged down by an oversupplied market that simply refuses to correct itself.
▮ Beijing gave an order. The pigs ignored it.
In 2025 the authorities told producers to cut the breeding-sow herd and drain the glut. It did not work: first-quarter pork output actually rose. Large integrators kept expanding to defend market share, and the promised discipline never arrived. Now the correction is being forced by losses instead of by policy.
How long the pain lasts
Analysts expect the liquidation to grind on through 2027 before supply and price find a floor. A cull of this size eventually tightens pork — and reshuffles feed demand for soybeans, corn and the rendered proteins that ride the same cycle.
When the biggest herd on the planet turns unprofitable, the tremor reaches every feed silo and every freezer from Rotterdam to Rio.
The 4DW Angle
China is the single biggest swing factor in global animal protein, and a multi-year hog liquidation there rewrites pork trade flows, feed-grain demand and reference prices worldwide. Our answer to that volatility is the same as always: a book spread across proteins, origins and destinations, so no one country's cycle sets our year.
▮ Frequently asked questions
Why are China's pig farmers losing money?
China's hog sector is losing about US$3.8 billion a month because an oversupplied market has pushed prices to near 10-year lows. Producers lose roughly US$65 on every head across some 700 million pigs slaughtered a year, and the herd liquidation is only just beginning.
How long will China's pork glut last?
Analysts expect the liquidation to grind on through 2027 before supply and price find a floor. Beijing ordered producers to cut the breeding-sow herd in 2025, but it failed - first-quarter pork output actually rose as large integrators kept expanding to defend market share.
How much of the world's pigs does China raise?
China raises roughly half of all the pigs on Earth, slaughtering around 700 million a year. That scale makes it the single biggest swing factor in global animal protein, so a multi-year hog liquidation there reshapes pork trade flows and feed-grain demand for soybeans and corn worldwide.
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